Thursday, April 3, 2014

How Long Does it Take to Estimate Time?

Before I started working for myself as a freelance instructional designer, I very seldom was asked to estimate how long a project would take. Now it’s a question posed by almost every new client.

The only tool I have used up until now is my record of how long it has taken me to do similar projects. For example, recently I won a contract to create a storyboard for a video. Pretty-straight forward. I had done this before and used my records to make an estimate. I won the contract and the client was very pleased.
Then they said, “Oh by the way we see you make videos too. Go ahead and make this one.” For some reason they didn't ask me for a time estimate on making the video. But it took much more time than I thought it would.

In the Project Management course I am currently taking, we are learning about making cost estimates. It turns out that “in many fields, the methods of cost estimation are well documented” (Portny, Mantel, Meredith, Shafer, Sutton,  & Kramer 2008. p.120).

So I looked for the same in my field, instructional design. I found many resources. Here are two I can use right away:

This is a blog post at the Chapman Alliance entitled, “How Long Does it Take to Create Learning?” From the numbers there I thought that their estimates are much higher than mine. Does that mean I’m doing something wrong?  

Then I did the numbers. The final video delivered to the client was three minutes and 21 seconds long. If I combine the time I spent on the storyboard with the time I spent capturing, editing, and implementing the interactions of the video, I come up with 13.34 hours.

If I did the math right, for this project I did a bit over 238 to 1. In other words, it would have taken me 238 hours to create a full hour of training.

Another resource is at the ASTD website. (American Society for Training & Development)

According to the chart on this site, my time on the project was a little high but still within parameters. I’m thinking the project I did falls into “Moderate interactivity; limited animations (using software such as Lectora, Captivate, ToolBook, TrainerSoft)”. I used Adobe Captivate to record the movie and do the interactions.

One of things I need to do is nail down which tasks match which descriptions on both of these resources.

My customers most likely won’t care how I come up with my estimates. They will just want them accurate, and match their perceptions. That’s a tricky part. We’ll see as I am going to be bidding on some contracts again soon.

References
Chapman, B. (2010). How Long Does it Take to Create Learning? [Research Study]. Published by Chapman Alliance LLC. www.chapmanalliance.com

Kapp K. Defelice, R. (2009). Time to Develop One Hour of Training. [web log] Retrieved from: http://www.astd.org/Publications/Newsletters/Learning-Circuits/Learning-Circuits-Archives/2009/08/Time-to-Develop-One-Hour-of-Training [Accessed: 3 Apr 2014].


Portny, S. E., Mantel, S. J., Meredith, J. R., Shafer, S. M., Sutton, M. M., & Kramer, B. E. (2008). Project management: Planning, scheduling, and controlling projects. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 

4 comments:

  1. I should probably add a bit of info. My experience with potential customers asking me for estimates of time and cost is not extensive. The way I obtain new contracts has changed recently. Along with that change is the need almost always to give an estimate of time or money or both.

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  2. I really appreciated your thoughts on how the experts predictions seem to be different than those of your own. I have this happen to me all of the time. Being a freelance videographer and editor, I repeatedly under estimate my competitors, and I never understood why until I started talking to them. When I'm giving my estimate, I look at how long I think my shoot will take, how long editing will take, and how long it will take me to provide a final project. I've always come back with a shorter time line, and thus as cheaper quote. What I found was interesting. First of all I never planned for mistakes, so I didn't include them in my scheduling, which usually either added additional stress on me or made me miss deadlines. Secondly, since I was a free lancer, I didn't have a lot of work, when scheduling with multiple jobs you have to schedule around these issues, thus giving you more things to do, thus causing an extended period of time to finish a project. I guess if anythings, these are things that come from experience and why its a good reason to listen to the experts when starting in the field.

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  3. I like using both of those tools, especially the ASTD example because it is more widely accepted by my clients as a credible source. I also will use prior projects as an example for estimating the time and resource costs of new projects. By using these, my clients have something to refer to and we can discuss what they are looking for by using different elements of those projects. I do, however, emphasize that it is simply an estimate and not set in stone, that it is subject to the complexity of their project and the tools selected to develop it.

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  4. I had not found the Chapman tool. Thank you. I also liked your examples. I have never calculated how long it takes me to do anything like this, I just do what has to be done.

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